Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

This is an extremely low total but it's warranted in my opinion. Freddy Peralta looks like an early N.L. Cy Young Award contender for the Brewers, sporting a 3.18 FIP and 0.86 WHIP through six starts. He's held current Cubs hitters to just 9-of-76 at the plate with five extra-base hits. Note that the Cubs are a middling 15th in the majors in OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Javier Assad will counter for Chicago. Current Brewers have just six at-bats against the Cubs right-hander with only one single off the bat of Willy Adames to show for it. Assad has recorded a 3.21 FIP and 1.00 WHIP in 32 innings of work this season. Both bullpens are serviceable, even if they have struggled lately. I do think this is a game where both starting pitchers can work deep into the contest. Take the under.

N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-5 victory yesterday. I look for the Brewers to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Freddy Peralta has had his top flight stuff going this season, posting a 3.18 FIP and 0.86 WHIP in six starts. Current Cubs hitters are just 9-for-76 off of him including only five extra-base hits. Javier Assad will counter for Chicago. He'll be facing a Brewers club that ranks tops in baseball in day game OPS and second in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. Over the last seven days the Brew Crew rank seventh in baseball in OPS while the Cubs sit 21st. Both bullpens have struggled lately but Milwaukee's relievers have generally been lights out on the road, sporting a collective 2.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown. Take Milwaukee (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

While yesterday's game in St. Louis was higher scoring than expect I look for things to go back to 'normal' on Sunday as the White Sox and Cardinals wrap up their three-game series. This will be a battle of left-handed starting pitchers and that's notable as the White Sox and Cards rank 30th and 27th in OPS vs. lefties, respectively, this season. Garrett Crochet takes the ball for Chicago. While he has cooled off following a hot start to his big league career he still owns a respectable 4.01 FIP and 1.10 WHIP this season. Matthew Liberatore will get his first start of the campaign for the Cards. He has pitched fairly well out of the bullpen so far this season, logging a 4.19 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. St. Louis' bullpen has been steady all season while Chicago's is at least trending in the right direction with a 4.28 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games (compared to 4.50 and 1.52 overall). Take the under (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Magic rallied for a win (and cover) in Game 6 of this series on Friday. That's par for the course as the home team has won each and every game in this series so far. I look for that trend to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Note that the Cavaliers are 58-51 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 100 points or more over the last three seasons including an 18-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're 54-50 ATS when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 20-14 ATS record this season. The Magic have had a double-digit advantage in terms of free throw attempts in each of the last two games and that's ultimately proved to be the difference from a pointspread perspective. As is often the case, I expect the script to flip as the scene shifts to Cleveland for Game 7 on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas over Vegas at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

You play for home ice advantage in the playoffs all season long and that's what the Stars have on Sunday as they host Vegas in a seventh-and-deciding game in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Golden Knights staved off elimination with a 2-0 win over the Stars in Game 6 on Friday. Note that Dallas is 71-43 (+11.4 net games) when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 21-11 (+5.8 net games) record in that situation this season. The Knights are 0-3 this season when coming off a shutout victory, as is the case here. Nothing has come easy for either team in this series but I look for the Stars to rise the occasion in Game 7. Take Dallas (10*).